by Gianfranco La Grassa*

Before the often mentioned 14th of december 2012, when the «left « was waiting for the fall of the Berlusconi government (and then ravaged Rome out of disappointment), I wrote that we were in for “surprises that would surprise” .

The first was precisely the non falling of the government, and because in all probability, from ‘’ high up’‘some votes were found for the premier on the part of those that should have been against him. From that moment the surprises continued in a farce acted in tandem between the ‘’ tenant of the High Hill’‘ and the premier who grumbled over the encroachment of the former, over who prevented him from governing. (in reality he himself chose not to do it ), over who dragged him into adventures such as Libya that he pretended not to agree with and to accept them unwillingly, over who seemed to impose his resignation while he played the false role of reluctance and dithering etc. All this because the transition had to be adequately prepared ( and the preparation also involved certain Vatican circles that appear today as victors, behind the facade of the conference of Todi etc).

Now the fog is just beginning to thin out with the almost official announcement that Berlusconi intends to return to the field, after having recently announced his withdrawal, but more and more weakly and with growing doubts,so much so that, you may remember, I had foreseen the event. At this point it is possible to dismiss the doubt that came to me at the time of the equally noted scene acted by Obama and Berlusconi with the phrase of the former: “ Either you don’t fall or you fall on your feet.” It could be interpreted as an uncertainty concerning the substitution of the then premier or, on the other hand, the continuation of his government, certainly transformed, and of international contacts, with the inversion of policies such as that followed in the field of energy between 2003 ( after the meeting in Sardinia with Putin returning from Algeria and Libya) and about the end of 2009. In reality by then, the substitution was decided and unrenounceable; however the substitution had to be prepared and it took nearly a year from December 2010. The uncertainty expressed in the phrase of Obama referred to the alternative: Berlusconi was to resign definitely (falling on his feet though, and with the progressive “realignment” of the magistrature despite being deaf to understanding and still foaming at the mouth). Otherwise, would his return have proven necessary in the end?

This uncertainty concerned the electorate of the centre- right and the ability or not of the “left” and the “third pole” to attract at least a part of it. So that actions of disturbance did not occur, the League was dismembered, using Maroni who by then was won over by Obama’s philo- occidentalism after the “dolce vita” enjoyed and appreciated at the Internal Ministry, and also a series of relationships in international circles. What surprises is the impudence of Bossi and his followers, stuck like thrushes on a skewer. However, it is a minor matter that can be explained at a later date. The decisive question was put in evidence by the administrative elections and the opinion polls showed a PDL on the path of destruction and real annihilation, but it’s electorate fundamentally abstensionist and not at all inclined to changing sides. A situation was arising, for some aspects similar to that of ‘94, when the electorate of the DC and PSI had no inclination to choose those “preferred” by the USA ( also at that time, in particular, by the democratic circles that had already received the emissaries of the PC in the 1970‘s) and by Agnelli, promoter of the agreement with Lama in 1975 and in favour of collaborative participation ( today, not by chance, under direct attack etc).

At that point Berlusconi came forward – and spurred on, officially by Occhetto, in reality by the Confindustria of Agnelli – plundered those votes. Nowadays it is almost impossible that something exactly the same could happen. Even that little resistance on the part of the “public” industry that helped Berlusconi is today almost invisible. Nevertheless it is not considered advisable to risk it. The “left” and the “centre” have nothing that attracts; their political nullity and the presence of an especially indecent intellectual class are more and more evident. At the most there is some attraction on the part of “casinisti” circles ( not close to Casini but to Grillo ). It seems, however, that the greater majority of the centre-right electorate, abstensionist, are above all furious because of the support given by the PDL to Monti and they feel essentially orphans of a Berlusconi with gumption.

In any case, it has become necessary to resort to bringing back the latter into the game (here the Obamian option comes in “Either you don’t fall….), hoping that not too much time has been lost and that he is not excessively disqualified. However, I repeat that politics have disappeared from the Italian horizon. The game is played exclusively with the person (today one is in decline, tomorrow he comes back with honours with the brains that are in circulation) and with elementary and rough indications. A hotchpotch is used that is capable of producing the highest level of mental confusion: financial games, terrorism, already taking place, the diminishing of the spending power of the greater part of the population, the menace of further cuts (the question of the 13th monthly wage), the idiosyncracy towards the loafers of the public service, towards the “resource draining” South, and so on in a festival of platitudes and commonplaces.

However, do not believe that everything is already decided in every minimum detail. Only options on general lines subsist, but the Italian terrain, after about 20 years of total instability is in any case not easily negotiable. Neither be deceived as far as the disaffection for politics is concerned. Without doubt the latter plays against the forces in the field. Nevertheless, gross ignorance of the basic principles of true politics – which, for so long, has been the case of the entire Italian population, including the more intelligent young sectors anxious to see “ greater justice” – favours further operations of transformism not all of which are known yet. Just look in Facebook to have an idea of the general lack of preparation in politics even amongst the best. Other “surprises will surprise”. None however, barring the unforseen, I mean really unforseen, will bring unpleasant surprises.

The little information that can be obtained – and that nevertheless has enabled me to make a few general predictions (not in detail) starting as early as 2003; and also from 2010 when the “collapse” began – point out so much quagmire, spattering of mud everywhere. In a few words there is a lot of uncertainty as to the path that the “powerful” (American) will follow with their servants (Italian).

They will treat us anyway very badly; and it seems because of the now necessary replaying in some way of the Berlusconian card, since others certainly appear available but leave too much uncertainty as to the conduct of the electorate. Expressed perhaps in an even better way, it is considered indispensable to put the greatest number in the field ( there are not many available anyway) in order to create a lot of confusion, and in the chaos, maybe find a way to “throw down an ace”.

In any case, if the “cavaliere” returns, be assured that this time he will follow the advice of the present American Administration to the letter. There will be no strange alliances (let’s call them that); politics won’t change much with respect to the last year, neither in internal nor in international affairs. Though there will have to be some make- believe improvement in taxes and other such things. For that very reason I don’t believe that the change will take place immediately. A bit more of “Monti’s cure” might still be necessary. Berlusconi will probably have to accept the idea of a possible coalition ( or at least dialogue) with the PD that would then find itself in a difficult situation similar to that of the PDL and with an even greater risk of crumbling away. Besides, the anti – Berlusconi sectors, except the Idv and the Sel will also have to moderate their hate against the “monster”, because they will try to prevent the mere return to the previous 20 year period. At that point Monti would find it more difficult to think of continuing his “career as premier”; instead his nomination as Senator for life was probably the signal to nominate him to the presidency; an individual so tied to the various “international masonries”(in reality of the pure American brand) would be the best guarantee of the continuation of the philo-Atlantic policy carried out tirelessly, though at the beginning covertly, by his “friend” Napolitano for the last 40 years.

For the moment we can only “stay tuned” and prepare ourselves for eventual hail storms on our heads; in the sense of a further crushing of our living conditions. I don’t believe the “rodents” have any intentions worse than those already nurtured and enacted concerning the forms of (non) politics used in these last 20 years. We must expect in the near future, starting as early as this autumn and in 2013, a considerable worsening both of the living standards of the majority of the population and of our social coexistence. As for the rest, this democracy, solely electoralist, will become more and more hollowed out but never annulled, since this is the way in which the aspiring world dominators have always acted; As it was with the atomic bombs on Japan, the relentless massacres during the “cold war”and in the last 20 years, etc. The “Arab revolutions “, the “liberal victory” and the “free elections” in Libya are examples by the book in this respect.

Not every move is decisive, not everything turns out as intended, but the general lines chosen in any case by the USA (of Obama) and by their allies/subordinates in Europe, and above all in Italy, are traced with sufficient clarity. There will be other surprises and moves that will have to be readapted along the way. Let’s follow the events, and in the end we will understand that real politics are not what we see. The decisions are made behind the scenes; on the stage there are only actors, sometimes capable, other times – as in this era of infinite meanness – there are “dogs”, rabid and ferocious but “democratic”; oh how democratic! We are in for some interesting episodes! Anyway, the names – From Obama to Merkel to Putin – are only a simplification; there is always “someone “ behind them that prompts or better still orders.

Not even the most powerful character on earth (or apparently so) is really in command; whoever wants to stay in that post must function in accordance with the tasks that the post assigns. The objectives are set out by “milieux” to which one cannot attach the exact name of a person, not even of a group or a lobby, because it will always have to do with various subjective agents in conflict, even though the result of the latter is, in the end, a given policy with the scope of a specific form of supremacy and configuration of power; both on a world level and on the level of single divisions of the world or of a given society.

We will always give it a name for simplicity, whether it is of a person (Obama etc.) or of a group (Bilderberg etc.), aware of the fact however, that it is done for speech “economy”; if on the other hand we remain prisoners of such names, then we will understand nothing and we will continue to believe that we have identified the “direction” while we are only discussing the “performance on stage”.

*Italian writer. Author of, among other books, “Capitalism Today”. Professor of Economics at the University of Pisa and Venice until 1996.