Masahiro Tauchi, Advisor, DEVNET JAPAN – Former Ambassador of Japan to Norway
- NATO Summit in Vilnius
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) held a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania on July 11-12 this year. The summit was attended by 31 member countries, including Finland, which became a formal member in April, Sweden, which is expected to join soon, and the heads of state of Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and the EU, all of whom are major partners of NATO.
Support for Ukraine was at the center of the discussions. NATO decided to provide a multi-year support program for Ukraine, upgrade the framework for consultations with Ukraine from the committee to the council and shorten the procedures for accession negotiations if they are to be intensified. Western countries announced additional military support. However, regarding Ukraine’s most concerned and expected NATO membership time, it remained at the position of “inviting Ukraine to join the alliance when agreed by member countries and when conditions are met, [1]” which was not necessarily satisfactory for President Zelensky[2].
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg (former Prime Minister of Norway) emphasized at a press conference that “NATO has never sent such a strong message in terms of showing a political message indicating a path to membership and concrete support from NATO countries. [3]“
2. Security in the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions is inseparable
At the NATO summit, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida emphasized that security in both the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions is inseparable in addition to expressing support for Ukraine. Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not only the Atlantic region but also the Indo-Pacific region is affected by security issues. The progress of events in the Indo-Pacific region directly affects security in the Atlantic region. Therefore, democratic countries in both regions must work together to address these issues. The summit was an appropriate occasion for advocating the need for cooperation between NATO and Indo-Pacific countries as it was attended by heads of state from partner countries in the Asia-Pacific region such as Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan (AP4).
Prime Minister Kishida said that “the international community is facing a historic turning point due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Security in both the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions is inseparable and Ukraine’s invasion is not just a problem for Europe. It is a global issue that is widely recognized. Today’s meeting is an important opportunity to strengthen cooperation between allied countries in both regions and demonstrate it to the international community.”
Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is an act of aggression that changes the status quo by force, the international community is facing a situation where its foundation is shaken and the international order may change significantly. If Russia’s illegal invasion becomes a fait accompli and “change of status quo by force” is recognized, the international order based on the UN Charter and international law will collapse, and others who perform similar “change of status quo by force” will appear, and the world will continue to be divided and confrontational.
In such a situation, the international order will change significantly depending on how the international community responds in the future. The international community must continue to demand that Russia’s use of military force be recognized as illegal aggression and that its troops be withdrawn immediately and Ukraine’s complete sovereignty be restored based on the UN Charter and international law.
Moreover, as mentioned above, if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leads to the collapse of the international order and division and confrontation in the international community, it will have a significant impact on global security. Russia’s use of nuclear weapons for intimidation, concerns about nuclear power plant attacks or nuclear weapon use, and concerns about their expansion into nuclear war in such cases are also global issues.
Geographically, Russia exists also on the Pacific side of the Eurasian continent and has been increasing its military activities around Japan. In addition, Russia has been strengthening strategic cooperation with China and continues to conduct joint exercises and training with Chinese ships and bombers around Japan. This has become a major security concern. China’s support for Russia and cooperation with it are amplifying the crisis in Europe.
The NATO communiqué pointed out that “The Indo-Pacific is important for NATO, given that developments in that region can directly affect Euro-Atlantic security.” It emphasized the relationship between security in both regions and decided to strengthen cooperation with allied countries in both regions to address common security challenges, including commitments to support Ukraine from partner countries in the Asia-Pacific region such as Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan (AP4) [4].
The NATO communiqué also expressed concern about China’s deepening relationship with Russia and China’s own large-scale military buildup, modernization and expansion of its nuclear arsenal, as well as its ambitions and coercive policies. It called on China to condemn Russia’s invasion war against Ukraine in any form and not support Russia’s war efforts in any way[5]. However, since the same communiqué states that “the relationship with China remains open,” NATO seems to intend to balance addressing security challenges posed by China while maintaining constructive relations with it economically[6].
3. New Cooperation between Japan and NATO
Prime Minister Kishida met with Secretary-General Stoltenberg during the NATO summit and concluded a new cooperation document called the “Individually Tailored Partnership Programme” to jointly address security challenges including cyber defense, misinformation countermeasures, space security, response to “new disruptive technologies” using AI and quantum technology, disarmament and non-proliferation[7]. The document included 16 areas of focus. They pointed out that “the situation in the Indo-Pacific region affects security in Europe as well” with China and Russia’s cooperation in mind and decided to strengthen cooperation to address common security challenges.
The attendance of NATO summits by like-minded countries in the Atlantic region and in the Indo-Pacific region was very useful for strengthening cooperation between them. NATO’s vigilance against China is relatively new but has rapidly increased its level of vigilance, mentioning China as a security risk to Western countries in 2021 and including it in its new strategic concept in 2022. Cyber-attacks and hybrid attacks have eliminated geographical barriers, and Chinese support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine was decisive in recognizing China as a security risk for the international community.
Regarding the opening of the NATO Tokyo office, French President Macron opposed it and it was postponed at this NATO summit. However, NATO and Japan share basic values such as freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law, and their cooperative relationship is inevitable. This cooperative relationship should be further strengthened in the future. However, given that Russia is using NATO’s eastward expansion as an excuse for its invasion of Ukraine and that China is opposing the opening of NATO’s Tokyo office as part of NATO’s eastward expansion, NATO and Japan must persistently seek understanding from the international community that opening a NATO Tokyo office is desirable for maintaining and strengthening a free and open international order and regional stability.
[1] NATO communiqué https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm?selectedLocale=en
BBC News Japan https://www.bbc.com/japanese/66172330
[2] Tweet by President Zelenskyy https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1678707674811187200?s=20
[3] Reuters https://jp.reuters.com/article/nato-summit-ukraine-decemeber-idJPKBN2YR15O
[4] Vilnius Summit Communiqué 85
[5] Ibid.25
[6] Ibid.24
[7] Joint Press Occasion and Meeting between Prime Minister Kishida and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, https://www.mofa.go.jp/page7e_000024.html