Fumiyasu Akegawa, Chair & CEO DEVNET International/Japan
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Republican presidential candidate is almost certain to be Donald Trump after Nikki Haley withdrew following the March 5 preliminary election results. The Democratic nominee will likely be incumbent Joe Biden, but in the current chaotic world situation, I believe that Trump is the most likely to win against Biden and become the next President of the United States.
So, what will happen if Trump is reelected? I would like to consider the war in Ukraine, the Gaza conflict, and the impact on Japan based on Trump’s foreign policy.
Trump’s Foreign Policy
Trump’s foreign policy is characterized by “America First” nationalism, skepticism of multilateralism, and a transactional approach to international relations. He has repeatedly criticized U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, arguing that it is costly and does not serve the national interest.
War in Ukraine
Trump has expressed sympathy for Russia and President Vladimir Putin and criticized NATO and the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine. He suggests that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia to end the war and suggests reducing U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
If Trump is reelected, U.S. policy toward Ukraine could change significantly. Trump should reduce or withdraw U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, thus paving the way for a bilateral settlement between Russia and Ukraine through talks.
In the first place, this war was caused by the intervention of the United States. I am reminded of King Pahlavi, who died in 1980 after being forced out of Iran, when I look at the current situation of Ukrainian President Wlodimir Zelensky. Continued US support is the only obstacle to solving the problem.
Gaza Conflict
Trump has been a strong supporter of Israel and has provided unwavering military and diplomatic support. He has moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and cut aid to Palestine.
Trump has a strong and trusting relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This relationship will be a major asset in negotiations to end the Gaza conflict. Trump may be the only leader who can persuade Netanyahu to accept a compromise.
Trump has in the past announced a peace plan called the “Ultimate Accord”. This proposal reflected to some extent the demands of both Israel and Palestine and provided a path toward a solution. I believe that Trump, after his reelection, could use this proposal as a basis to push for further negotiations and possibly lead to an agreement.
Impact on Japan
The second Trump administration is likely to reignite trade friction with China. This is because Trump has mentioned that he will impose a flat 60% tariff on imports from China. On the security front, if China seeks to expand its influence over Taiwan, the maritime supremacy struggle between the U.S. and China could escalate, and U.S. national interests in Guam, Hawaii, and other areas could be shaken. If this happens, cooperation with Japan will become increasingly important to protect U.S. national interests. President Trump is likely to ask Japan for more cooperation in both the economic and security spheres. There will also be increased expectations in Japan that President Trump will address the abduction issue between Japan and North Korea. This is because, while the Biden administration has completely ignored North Korea for the past four years, Trump has held three summits with Kim Jong-un in Vietnam and Singapore, and North Korea must be waiting for Trump’s reelection.