Cas Mudde* – The Guardian
Media complacency and outgoing PM Mark Rutte’s decision to campaign on immigration have created a political earthquake
Two things were already clear months before Dutch election day: the Netherlands would have a new prime minister and dozens of new parliamentarians. Forty sitting members of parliament, a quarter of the Tweede Kamer (lower house), and, even more striking, three of the four leaders of the outgoing conservative-led coalition had announced their departure from national politics. Ironically, in this sea of electoral change, it was the far-right mainstay, Geert Wilders, the soon-to-be longest-sitting MP, who would emerge the big winner.
How do we make sense of the political earthquake that has put Wilders and his PVV party in first place and how will it affect Dutch and European politics? The first, and most important, lesson is one that Dutch politicians in particular should have known, as it has happened over and over again in the past three decades in the Netherlands and throughout western Europe. If you make the elections about the issues of the far right, notably the “problem” of immigration, the far right wins. We saw this most recently in Sweden.
Another similarity with last year’s Swedish elections is that if you make elections about the far right’s suitability to govern, the far right wins. In the last week of the campaign, as the PVV made its shocking surge in the polls, article after article proclaimed the “milder tone” of Wilders, who had allegedly softened his “sharp edges”.
In fact, always witty, but rarely critical, the Dutch media even started to refer to him as Geert Milders. In reality, and as Wilders emphasised several times, there was no change in programme but one in strategy. He has not moderated his extreme positions about immigration or Islam, let alone rejected them. Rather, he has said that there are “bigger problems” than limiting immigration at the moment.
Ultimately responsible for Wilders’ massive victory is, ironically, his personal nemesis, Mark Rutte, the outgoing conservative (VVD) prime minister who decided to blow up his coalition over the specific issue of asylum seekers. By moving the focus from a controversy over farmers’ use of nitrogen and the (alleged) urban-rural divide – which propelled the agrarian populist BBB party to a massive victory in provincial elections earlier this year – back to immigration and the alleged native-immigrant divide, Rutte’s VVD had hoped to dominate the campaign. Instead, as always, it is the far-right PVV that has won. As Jean-Marie Le Pen said almost half a century ago, the people prefer the original over the copy.
Moreover, when Rutte’s successor in the VVD leadership, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, opened the door to a possible coalition with Wilders, in the hope of becoming prime minister of such a coalition, she helped his normalisation, which was eagerly taken up by Dutch journalists who were bored by the low-profile campaign. To be fair, Wilders made excellent use of these opportunities, showing his exceptional political experience and skills in interviews and debates.
Still, while open to governing with Wilders, Yeşilgöz-Zegerius was adamant in the final days of the campaign that she would not govern under him. Given that the anti-establishment Pieter Omtzigt and his centrist New Social Contract (NSC) party had ruled out working with Wilders’ PVV altogether, Wilders’ electoral victory could yet convert to political defeat.
In fact, the magnitude of his victory, and his party’s huge lead over the VVD, which came in third, could force the latter to join an anti-Wilders coalition along with Frans Timmermans’ leftist Greens/Social Democrat alliance and Omtzigt’s new movement. The main problem with this, however, is that the Greens/Social Democrats (GL/PvdA), as that coalition’s biggest party, will certainly claim the prime ministerial position for Timmermans. Moreover, with the VVD leader Yeşilgöz-Zegerius having reached out to Wilders but rejected Timmermans because she said he would “tax the country to pieces”, a coalition under Timmermans could lead to a major backlash among VVD members and voters.
Whatever the outcome of coalition negotiations, the role of the Netherlands in the rest of the world, particularly in the European Union, is going to change. First, with the departure of Rutte, the longest-sitting democratically elected political leader within the EU, the country will no longer punch as much above its weight as it did in the past decade. Second, although the Netherlands has long ceased to be an engine of European integration, under Rutte’s leadership, the various Dutch coalitions of the last decade barked more than they bit.
Now with outspokenly Eurosceptic parties such as the PVV and Omtzigt’s NSC the big winners, the conservative VVD will probably become even more Dutch-centric in its European policy, further complicating a coalition with the Europhile GL/PvdA (particularly under Timmermans) and the liberal D66.
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For now, though, the Netherlands will have to come to terms with a new reality. After almost 25 years of catering to far-right voters, allegedly to defeat far-right parties, a far-right party is by far the biggest party in parliament. Perhaps now, more than 20 years after the rise of Pim Fortuyn, the country can finally start an honest and open discussion about its far-right problem.
*Cas Mudde is the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia and an adjunct professor at the Center for Research on Extremism (C-Rex) at the University of Oslo
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European far-right leaders celebrate Geert Wilders’ party leading Dutch election exit polls
Helen Sullivan – The Guardian
‘Parties like ours are coming all over Europe!’ says Belgian far-right leader
Far-right figures across Europe have congratulated the Dutch anti-Islam, anti-EU populist politician Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV) on being predicted to win the most seats in the Netherlands parliament, in an upset that opens the way for the PVV to play a key role in the formation of the next government.
The PVV was predicted to win 35 seats in the 150-seat parliament, according to exit polls, which means that to form a working majority, Wilders will still need to gain enough support to form a coalition.
In an initial reaction after the vote, Wilders said: “The campaign is over and the voters have spoken. Now we will have to look for agreements with each other. With a wonderful position of 35 seats, the PVV can no longer be ignored.”
Hungary’s far-right prime minister, Viktor Orbán, congratulated Wilders prematurely on “winning the Dutch elections!”, saying the results showed “the winds of change are here!”
The French far-right leader, Marine Le Pen, congratulated Wilders and the PVV, saying the result “confirms the growing attachment to the defence of national identities”.
Belgium’s Tom Van Grieken, the leader of the far-right Vlaams Belang, said: “It is clear: the population is yearning for real change. Not only in the Netherlands, but also in Flanders. Parties like ours are coming all over Europe!”
Spain’s far-right Vox party leader, Santiago Abascal, characterised the result, in an election dominated by debates over immigration, as a clear signal: “More and more Europeans demand in the streets and at the polls that their nations, their borders and their rights be defended.”
The head of the anti-immigration League party and deputy prime minister of Italy, Matteo Salvini, called Wilders a “friend” and “ally of the League”, saying: “A new Europe is possible.”
Alice Weidel, the co-leader of Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland party, said: “Congratulations on this great success. All of Europe wants political change.”
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Habib El Kaddouri, the head of an organisation that represents Dutch Moroccans, said: “The distress and fear are enormous. Wilders is known for his ideas about Muslims and Moroccans. We are afraid that he will portray us as second-class citizens.”
Friends of the Earth Netherlands said: “A Wilders government will mean four years of climate change denial, exclusion and a breakdown of the rule of law.”
The leader of the GreenLeft-Labour party alliance, Frans Timmermans, said: “Democracy has spoken, now it’s time for us to defend democracy, to defend the rule of law. We have to make a fist against exclusion, against discrimination.”
The Conservative party leader, Dilan Yeşilgöz, meanwhile, expressed scepticism that Wilders would succeed in forming a government, saying: “It is up to Wilders to show he can form a majority. I don’t see it happening.”
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Annex:
Dutch Muslims fearful for future after ‘shocking’ election results
Scale of Netherlands vote for Geert Wilders’ far-right party and its anti-Islam policies causes concern over rights and safety. Geert Wilders described it as the “most beautiful day” of his political life. But for many across the Netherlands, news that Wilders’ far-right, anti-Islam party had emerged with the most votes in Wednesday’s election set off alarm bells over what might lie ahead in a country once regarded as a beacon of tolerance.