By Tatiana Kanunnikova – Asia Times
In less than 80 years, one out of every two newborns worldwide will be African
Africa’s population will continue to rise rapidly over the next few decades, particularly in the Sahel. While this trend has both upsides and downsides, it has a tangible impact on global processes. Namely, Africa’s demographic boom may be among the factors behind regional conflicts, food insecurity and uncontrolled migration.
The statistics are unequivocal: by 2050, Africa’s total population will increase to almost 2.5 billion, an impressive gain compared with 1.36 billion inhabitants in 2023. In less than 80 years, one out of every two newborns worldwide will be African.
The good news is that the increased share of working-age individuals is beneficial to the economies of African countries and beyond. But on the flip side, a larger proportion of the young population means a greater financial burden for governments, as well as added social and security risks.
The thing is that a growing population demands increased food production, something that many African nations may fail to achieve. As of today, four of the five countries in the world with the highest number of children suffering from malnutrition are in Africa, with Nigeria and Ethiopia topping the list.
Despite one fifth of Africa’s population being undernourished, the region is not any closer to achieving the goal of eradicating hunger. On average, African governments allocate only 3.8% of their budgets to agriculture, while some have cut their spending in recent years.
Africa: continent of hope and gloom
“Looking at Africa requires differentiation and understanding of living conditions that are fundamentally different from Europe,” Rudolf G. Adam, a security expert at the Liechtenstein-based GIS, told this author.
“Africa is gigantic. The differences between the Arabic-Islamic North and the South are huge. The distance between Cairo and Johannesburg is the same as between Beijing and Ankara.
“To understand Africa, both relative and absolute figures matter, above all the relation to Europe. In 1950, Europe (excluding Ukraine and Turkey) had about 400 million people, Africa 100 million. Today, these figures read 500 million and 1.000 million. In 2050, they will be 500 million and about 2.500 million. That implies: A relationship of 4:1 is changing into 1:5 within one century. Migratory pressure is bound to rise,” he said.
“In 2050, Nigeria will have about 400 million people – more than the USA; in 2100, it could have 650 million, becoming the third most populous country after India and China with about 700 people per square km, resulting in a population density almost twice that of Haiti. Will this result in similar social and political conditions?
“Africa has both abject poverty and fabulous wealth. Income disparity is one of the chief problems in many countries,” the expert continued.
“Population growth is highly unevenly distributed. South Africa, accounting for about 40% of the productivity of the entire continent, has a shrinking population – a terrible consequence of AIDS (as has Botswana). The highest growth rates are in countries with weak economies and fragile environments, particularly in the Sahel zone,” Adam added.
Conflicts and terrorism
As of 2023, sub-Saharan Africa was considered to be the world’s terrorism hotspot, accounting for around 50% of all victims killed in the previous year. Violent extremist organizations operating in the Sahel are growing stronger, threatening to spread instability across Africa.
Among the most deadly ones are the Islamic State-Sahel Province, the Islamic State in the West African Province, and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin. The latter was labeled by the Economist in 2022 as the world’s fastest-growing terrorist group.
Although demographics are viewed as a secondary factor, violent conflict is more likely to occur in African nations with faster rates of population expansion. The UN experts note that poverty, hunger, and unemployment provide a favorable environment for terrorist groups to grow.
Of particular concern is the terrorist recruitment of children. In each country impacted by Boko Haram violence, children make up more than half of the total population.
Uncontrolled migration
Being an essential source of labor, migration benefits both countries of origin and host nations. The latter gain economically as foreign workers help fill labor gaps, while the former take advantage of remittances sent by migrants.
In the meantime, despite all the upsides, migration can pose significant risks. According to the Africa Center report, the number of undocumented African migrants has been gradually rising in recent years.
The majority of migrants are single young Africans moving within the continent, predominantly to urban areas. However, a portion of these choose Europe and the Middle East as destinations. The 2024 World Migration Report says that the number of Africans residing outside the area has more than doubled since 1990, with the largest increase seen in Europe.
What to do
The world is aware of the problem, and some successful initiatives are already underway. In 2011, the Ouagadougou Partnership (OP) was launched by West African countries to advance family planning. Thanks to the OP efforts, 1.18 million more women in Africa have used modern contraception over the last decade.
Another promising area of work relates to women’s empowerment and gender equality. The most fascinating thing about this strategy is that it kills two birds with one stone. On the one hand, a greater number of educated working women contributes to the region’s economic development; on the other, empowered women generally have fewer children.
“If the developed world wants African countries to bloom and to prevent an ever rising and uncontrollable exodus, it will have to get more engaged locally to create sustainable, attractive perspectives for the ambitious to stay and to build a better future for themselves and for their countries,” Adam pointed out. “At the moment, Africa is still looked upon as a cheap reservoir from which to meet outside demands: food, minerals, energy, and qualified personnel (doctors).”
“Better birth control will become a key to prosperity and political stability,” the expert noted. “For Europe, the future of the Sahel zone will be crucial. At the moment, Russia and China seem to be gaining a foothold there. Africa deserves more attention. It is high time to give it more prominence internationally. That requires, above all, looking at the continent with a differentiating eye.”
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*Russian journalist Tatiana Kanunnikova is a graduate of the Moscow State Institute of International Affairs.