By Jianlu Bi* – Modern Diplomacy*
A curious and, to some, unnerving diplomatic thaw is underway between India and China.
A curious and, to some, unnerving diplomatic thaw is underway between India and China. For years, the world watched with bated breath as the two nuclear-armed neighbors teetered on the brink of escalation after their deadly border clash in 2020. Yet, recent months have seen a flurry of high-level meetings, reciprocal visits, and quiet agreements that suggest a marked shift away from confrontation and toward conciliation. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to New Delhi, his first in years, and the subsequent restoration of long-stalled travel and trade links, have ignited a global debate: Is India, a key partner in the U.S.-led Quad alliance, turning toward China?
The answer is far more complex than a simple binary choice. India isn’t “turning” to China in a way that suggests a fundamental realignment of its strategic posture. Instead, it’s engaging in a sophisticated and pragmatic pivot—a calculated effort to manage an inherently complex relationship in a rapidly evolving, multipolar world. The recent diplomatic rapprochement is less about a change of heart and more about a rational calculation of national interest, driven by both countries’ need for stability and economic growth, and amplified by the shifting sands of global geopolitics.
The signs of this diplomatic shift are unmistakable. For years, high-level contact was frozen, with the two nations communicating primarily through military and low-level diplomatic channels. This changed dramatically following a series of meetings between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping. What was once an icy standoff has evolved into a series of carefully choreographed encounters. The recent visit by Wang Yi was a critical step in laying the groundwork for more substantive talks, including the possibility of a bilateral meeting between Xi and Modi at the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit.
The results of these engagements have been tangible. After a five-year hiatus, both countries are working to restore direct flights, a move that will ease travel and facilitate economic exchange. India has resumed tourist visas for Chinese citizens, a significant reversal from the post-2020 restrictions. Perhaps most symbolically, China has reopened the sacred pilgrimage route for Indian devotees to Mount Kailash and Lake Manasarovar, an act that holds immense cultural and religious significance. These are not the actions of two nations locked in a zero-sum conflict; they are the actions of great powers seeking to de-escalate tensions and rebuild trust, even if that trust is fragile.
From India’s perspective, this pivot isn’t born of weakness but of a hard-nosed assessment of its own interests. A key factor is the growing geopolitical turbulence that has exposed the limitations of a purely Western-aligned strategy. The recent actions of the Trump administration, including the threat to impose steep tariffs on Indian goods and sanctions over its energy and defense purchases from Russia, have created a significant “trust deficit” with Washington. This has been a stark reminder that even close partnerships are subject to the transactional nature of international relations. For a country that has long cherished its strategic autonomy, this friction reinforces the wisdom of not putting all its eggs in one basket.
Beyond the geopolitical realm, economic pragmatism is a powerful catalyst. India’s economy, while a global leader in growth, still faces significant challenges, including slowing foreign direct investment and persistent supply chain vulnerabilities. Despite the political friction, trade between India and China has continued to soar, reaching an astonishing $127.7 billion with a trade deficit nearing $100 billion. While this imbalance is a source of frustration, it also highlights India’s deep economic reliance on Chinese goods and components. A smoother relationship could facilitate a more balanced trade dynamic and ensure critical supply chains remain open. In this context, China’s recent decision to ease export controls on crucial items like fertilizers, rare earths, and industrial equipment is a powerful economic gesture aimed at creating a more favorable climate for cooperation.
Despite these overtures, it’s crucial to temper expectations. The notion that India is fundamentally “turning” is a misreading of its long-term strategic calculations. The underlying structural issues that define the relationship haven’t been resolved and won’t be anytime soon. The primary point of contention remains the unresolved border dispute. The militarization of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) continues, and the psychological scars of the 2020 clash run deep.
Furthermore, India’s strategic posture remains one of a rival, not an ally. India continues to play a central role in the Quad, participating in joint naval drills and security dialogues aimed at maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific. It has also deepened its military and diplomatic ties with other Indo-Pacific powers, including Japan, Australia, France, and Vietnam. These are clear signals that India isn’t abandoning its strategy of hedging against Chinese influence. It remains a nation determined to protect its core interests and balance power in its neighborhood.
The current state of India-China relations is a masterclass in a new form of foreign policy. This isn’t the Cold War-era non-alignment, which often meant passive neutrality. Instead, it is an active policy of “multi-alignment.” The underlying philosophy is one of “cooperation-competition.” India and China are learning to navigate their relationship by cooperating on global issues like climate change and global trade governance, while continuing to compete for influence in the Indian Ocean and beyond. It is a pragmatic, rational choice for two nations that, due to their size, geography, and ambition, are destined to be rivals but also have much to gain from a stable and functional relationship.
In the end, the ongoing diplomatic dance between India and China is less about a fundamental shift in allegiance and more about two great powers learning to manage an inherently complex and competitive neighborhood. The recent thaw is a sign of diplomatic maturity, a recognition that continued hostility serves neither country’s interests.
*Jianlu Bi is a Beijing-based award-winning journalist and current affairs commentator. His research interests include international politics and communications. He holds a doctoral degree in communication studies and a master’s degree in international studies. He also writes for the SCMP, Foreign Policy In Focus, TRT World, Eurasia Review, International Policy Digest, IOL, the Citizen and others.
Read also: https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/honeymoon-over-trump-divorces-india/