By Jeffery A. Tobin* – Foreign Policy in Focus (FPIF)
Street violence has superseded ideology in much of the region.
In recent weeks, Chileans recorded a quiet yet powerful shift in political sentiment. Legislators and pundits increasingly point to rising gang violence—including kidnappings, torture chambers, and graffiti‑tagged neighborhoods—as the grim backdrop framing the lead-up to the presidential election in November. This escalation has overshadowed traditional debate on redistribution or pensions. Even the left’s candidate for president, the Communist Party’s Jeannette Jara, must fact this uncomfortable truth: in Latin America today, security, not ideology, has become the decisive measure of political power.
The region is often described in terms of left and right cycles, a pendulum swinging between redistribution and liberalization. That story obscures what now animates politics more than anything else—the pervasive fear of insecurity. From Santiago to Bogotá to San Salvador, voters are not rewarding or punishing governments on ideological grounds.
They are asking a simpler, sharper question: who can keep me safe?
Why Security Dominates
Violence and organized crime have risen across much of the region, eroding the patience voters once extended to economic reforms or social experiments. Chile, long known for stability, now faces rising homicide rates and organized criminal networks. Colombia continues to grapple with guerrilla dissidents and narco-trafficking despite promises of peace. In Argentina, the constituents of libertarian president, Javier Milei, view personal safety as urgent an issue as inflation.
These pressures make ideology look secondary. Campaigns still rehearse the familiar debates about free markets and redistribution, but on the ground, insecurity cuts across class and political identity. The middle class worries about car theft, the poor about gang violence, the wealthy about kidnapping. Fear is a universal denominator.
This shift has elevated figures who embody security first. In El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele has turned a brutal crackdown on gangs into a global brand of governance. Critics call his tactics authoritarian, but his approval ratings soar because voters feel safer. In Chile, Gabriel Boric’s progressive reform agenda has repeatedly collided with public demands for tougher measures on crime, narrowing his political room for maneuver. Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, elected to bring peace and reconciliation, faces growing frustration as violence persists.
Even where ideological projects loom large, security reshapes them. Milei’s radical economic experiment in Argentina is framed less as a libertarian revolution than as a bid to restore order to a chaotic system. Security, in this sense, is not just about crime—it has become shorthand for stability, predictability, and control.
The New Political Divide
What emerges is less a contest between left and right than a divide between governments that can project security and those that cannot. Political leaders now accumulate legitimacy not by ideology but by performance in public order. Security politics is often performative: soldiers patrolling neighborhoods, tough rhetoric, visible shows of authority. Whether these measures succeed in reducing crime long term is almost beside the point; what matters is that they look like action.
This has created a new political economy in which security functions as hard currency. Candidates trade in promises of control. Incumbents spend their capital on military deployments or fast-tracked laws. And voters, weary of abstract debates, reward the actors who seem most willing to act decisively.
The security turn comes with costs. Militarization may deliver short-term reassurance, but it can erode democratic institutions and weaken civilian oversight. Governments risk normalizing emergency powers that outlast emergencies. In many cases, the promise of security outpaces the reality; when crime persists, elections become even more volatile, as voters discard leaders faster than before.
Still, the pattern is unmistakable. Across Latin America, public safety has become the decisive test for political authority. It reshapes ideological projects, elevates outsider figures, and drives rapid swings in legitimacy. Where past generations judged leaders by their economic models, today’s citizens make assessments based on whether they can walk home without fear.
Seen from Santiago’s restless protests, Colombia’s political frustrations, or El Salvador’s authoritarian temptations, the lesson is clear. Latin America is not experiencing a simple rightward swing. It is experiencing a deeper recalibration, where security has replaced ideology as the core currency of political power.
Inflation still matters. Jobs still matter. But fear is the region’s hardest currency—and the one that decides elections.
*Jeffery A. Tobin is a partner and senior advisor at Pan-American Strategic Advisors, where he focuses on democracy, corruption, and security trends across the Western hemisphere.