By Sedat Laçiner* – Modern Diplomacy
Humanity is facing what may be the most profound demographic transformation in recorded history.
Humanity is facing what may be the most profound demographic transformation in recorded history. The populations of Western countries, which peaked during the 19th and 20th centuries, have been stagnating or even declining for at least half a century. Across the northern arc of the globe—encompassing Europe, North America, Russia, Japan, and South Korea—fertility rates are collapsing. Populations are shrinking and aging simultaneously. Once the world’s demographic giants, countries such as Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and Japan are now confronting the specter of sudden demographic collapse.
International migration conceals some of this transformation. Germany’s population, for example, appears stable, yet that stability masks a deep internal shift. The number of ethnic Germans is falling, while population growth is sustained only through immigration and the relatively higher fertility of immigrant-origin families.
In truth, fertility is declining everywhere. Urbanization, education, and the growing participation of women in the labor market have steadily reduced family size across the globe. Yet the pace of decline varies sharply in different regions. In Western Europe, the average number of children per woman has fallen to around 1.5, and in some major cities it is below 1.0. By contrast, in parts of Africa and South Asia, fertility still remains comparatively high. In Niger, for example, the average number of children per woman dropped from seven in 2000 to six today—a decline, but still far above European levels.
As a result, while populations in the North are contracting, much of Africa and Asia continues to grow rapidly. Africa’s current population of roughly 1.5 billion is projected to reach 3.2 billion within about 45 years. By 2070, nearly half of all people on Earth may be African.
Another rapidly expanding group is the Muslim peoples. Currently about 25% of humanity, Muslims are expected to exceed 30% within 25 years. By 2070, at least one in three—and by some estimates nearly one in two—people on the planet will be Muslim.
Between 2050 and 2070, Yemen’s population is projected to surpass that of Britain or France. Afghanistan may exceed 80 million, while Iraq could top 100 million. Once a sparsely inhabited desert, the Middle East by mid-century will have a population one and a half times larger than that of the entire European Union.
In short, while the North grows older and emptier, the South is experiencing an unprecedented demographic boom. Humanity is witnessing—simultaneously—both the steepest fertility decline and the fastest population growth in history. The consequences are inevitable: as the South swells and the North shrinks, migration pressures will intensify. Africa, already struggling to feed its 1.5 billion people, cannot possibly sustain more than 3 billion; large-scale migration northward is therefore all but certain. Likewise, Afghanistan, projected to reach 80 million, will inevitably send millions northward in search of opportunity and survival.
Today, three regions account for nearly all global population growth: Africa, the Muslim world, and India. By 2070, these regions will together add more than 3 billion people. Two-thirds of the world’s population will be African, Muslim, or Indian. Should even one billion of these people migrate north, the demographic and political balance of Europe and North America will be transformed beyond recognition.
This future may sound distant, but it has already begun. Europe and America are in the midst of profound demographic and political change. The rise of Trumpism in the United States and populist movements in Europe are, at their core, reactions to these shifting demographic tides.
Western strategists foresaw this as early as the 1960s, when European and American organizations began promoting family planning across Asia and Africa in an attempt to slow population growth. Billions of dollars have since been spent—largely in vain.
A silent, invisible migration is already under way, reminiscent of the Great Migrations that reshaped the Roman Empire. Some demographers draw explicit parallels. U.S. President Donald Trump and European populists such as Geert Wilders, Marine Le Pen, and Germany’s AfD also frame migration as an invasion. Yet the historical lesson of Rome is not that migration destroyed it, but that Rome failed to integrate and adapt to demographic change. The fusion of external peoples with Roman civilization ultimately produced the foundations of modern Europe. Perhaps the great civilization of the future will emerge from a similar synthesis—between the migrants of Africa and Asia and the aging societies of the North.
Trump may build walls, and European leaders may harden borders, but migration on this scale cannot be stopped. Even if a fraction of the billions in the South move northward, no barrier will hold them back. Ironically, as northern societies age and depopulate, they may soon compete to attract migrants in order to sustain their economies and social systems. Put differently, the very phenomenon of international migration, regarded by many as the West’s gravest dilemma, may also embody the remedy for its deepest afflictions.
The future is already approaching. It cannot be halted—only managed. Rather than resisting the structural tides of demographic change, humanity’s wisest course may be to prepare for them, to adapt, and to shape the new world they will inevitably bring.
*Sedat Laciner is a Turkish academic and dissident who holds a Master’s degree from the University of Sheffield (UK) and a PhD from King’s College London (University of London). Throughout his academic career, Professor Laciner has published numerous academic articles and books on topics related to international relations and security. He has also been a commentator on international politics in various national and international media outlets. Laciner has lectured at several universities in Turkey and internationally. Laciner was the former Rector of Canakkale University and president of the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK), a think-tank that focuses on international security issues. Laciner was arrested in 2016 and spent nearly seven years in prison as part of a broader crackdown on dissent and an infringement on academic freedom in Turkey. Prior to his arrest, Prof. Sedat Laciner was a vocal critic of the government and known for his critical views on Turkish foreign policy and his advocacy for greater democracy and human rights in Turkey. Sedat Laciner was selected as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum in 2006.