by Cecilia Capanna *
The Ayatollah says it’s an US-Israel conspiracy. What will happen?
Roberto Savio, journalist and global politics analyst, and the young Iranian artist Zara Kiafar talked about today’s Iran, the protests but also the historical reasons and difficulties that have brought it to a real breaking point, while Ayatollah Khamenei blames the United States and Israel. How will it end?
Demonstrations are taking place in 150 towns around the world, in order to support the protests that have been going on for two weeks in Iran. Riots started because of the death of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old girl brutally beaten up by the Moral Police. She was accused of not wearing the veil in a correct way.
Parades of bare-headed women show the victim’s photo, burn the hijab, cut their hair to the cry of “Woman, Life, Freedom”. They are not alone, young men march with them while those who did not have the courage to walk alongside them accompany them with shouts of support from the windows and balconies, or honk from cars. But if the spark was the imposition of the hijab on women, the protest has gradually taken shape against Ayatollah theocratic regime’s entire system and against the dictatorship of religious fundamentalism.
Regardless of the risk, thousands of people defy death to change their country, unfortunately almost a hundred of them have been killed so far. There have been thousands of abuses and arrests, including that of an Italian girl, Alessia Piperno.
“Mahsa is not the first girl to be killed. About 12 years ago the police shot a girl in front of the University of Tehran,” says Zara Kiafar, 25, a young Iranian painter who lives in Rome. “But nobody talked about it. Her death, like so many others, remained silent. This time it’s different, this time the new generation is more and more courageous. My mother is already braver than my grandmother who, for example, has always condemned this kind of protests. But my mother is still very afraid to take off the veil, as I was when I was younger. They brainwash you saying that if you don’t wear it you go to hell and you end up believing it. But now the generation after mine is completely free from this terror. Young people are very aware, they know what is outside Iran. Already the children of nine, ten years old are “unbelievers”. I saw a photo of a girl whose mother was killed by the government. She took a picture of herself holding her cut hair in her hand, next to her mother’s grave. Her face had no expression, as if she wasn’t feeling anything. The only thing that could be seen on that face is strength, power, fearless of anything because she has already lost everything. Iranian new generation is that brave because they have already lost everything, their childhood, their youth. People no longer want to live like this”.
It looks like Iran’s history of has taken a precise direction: its citizens are trying to break the wall of fundamentalism with a solid awareness of human rights. But although this is evident to the eyes of the whole world, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has shouted at a plot by the United States and Israel, historically anti-Iran, and he said that they are behind the protests. Why has so much courage inflamed the population in Iran and not in other fundamentalist states? And what will the future of the country be?
We asked Roberto Savio, globalist journalist and international politics analyst:
“To understand the situation in Iran, it is necessary to consider that there are two Irans: Iran of the rural world, the internal one, and Iran of the cities. Most of the population is concentrated in the latter. Only in Tehran there are between 7 and 11 million inhabitants, some sources even talk about 13 million. Tehran has nothing to do with what one might encounter while traveling in the interior of the country. They are two different worlds.
If we then compare it to Saudi Arabia, which has always been preferred by the United States in terms of anti-Iran, we are in front of two different historical evolutions. Saudi Arabia is still a feudal country, where human rights are completely ignored, women are subjugated by culture, not just by religious imposition. Only a few universities are vaguely modern, there are no churches, there are no synagogues, there are some modern buildings. Iran, on the other hand, is a country with highest level universities, the country has conquered its place in the world in many sectors: cinema, theater, art, architecture. Tehran has truly impressive modern architectural constructions. US choice of preferring Saudi Arabia, out of spite on the Iranian revolution, made them ally with people like Bin Salman, who is officially a murderer. But because he has oil, he can get along well.
So, going back to Iran’s two faces, the rural one is similar to Saudi Arabia and the modern one is in line with the European countries, obviously with difficulties in modernization. In fact, it should not be forgotten that Iran is one of the very few countries in the world that has been hit by sanctions for many years, exactly since 1974. Sanctions have been imposed by the United States and consequently by all its allies. So, everything you can find in Iran is locally produced, nothing is imported.
But the important thing to be considered is that before the fundamentalists arrived in 1973, the country was completely aligned with the West. With the arrival of Ayatollah Khomeyni, plotted by the United States, Iran had shock and literally had a break. It happened that popular discontent with the shah, caused by his waste of money and his distance from the citizens, led to a huge mass revolt led by bazaar traders. At that point, the US and Western countries sent Ruhollah Khomeyni back to Iran. He was in exile in Paris, France gave him the plane, and he returned saying he was bringing democracy. For the first six months, he left a democratic figure in power. Then he took him off to establish the theocratic regime that still lasts today and is the only one in the world. This is not the case in Saudi Arabia either.
The government is made by the ayatollahs, they are the ones who rule the country. They are the prophets who protect the Koran law. There is a book that collects the rules for doing everything: how to eat, how to drink, how to make love, how to sleep, all prescribed in a millimeter way, and it is still in force. The current Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is very smart but he continues to impose a world that no longer makes sense. After a long silence for which someone even thought he was dead, he blamed the demonstrations on a plot by Israel and the United States. In doing so, he essentially supports the repression by President Ebrahim Raisi, who ultimately is his clone.
Since 1973, the ayatollahs have created a system of power steeped in corruption. Because of that, there are strong interests to keep it alive. For example, they created the Revolutionary Guard Corps which has better salaries and treatments than the army. The country is therefore corrupt in a structural sense. But corruption is huge also in the real sense. A practical and simple example: satellite dishes are prohibited to prevent people from seeing programs from other countries and instead every house has one. How did they enter the country? Customs should have stopped them at the border. Even if the Guardians of the Revolution break them roof by roof, they are regularly bought back, but by whom? And where did they come from? In Tehran, you can order wine with home delivery even if it is forbidden to drink alcohol. It is clear that there is huge, widespread corruption. And the ayatollahs are not just a religious group but the face of a highly-structured power”.
So it looks like Iranian privileged people’s corruption has paradoxically opened cracks in the wall of the same theocratic regime which generated it. It exposed the population to globalized world’s influence. Are Internet and social media accessible with alternative systems, even if they are obscured?
“You can always find a way to get connected to the Internet”, confirms Zara Kiafar. Roberto Savio continues to explain:
“From first revolution to today, there are 42 million new Iranians. These people, apart from the ayatollahs, are totally immersed in the contemporary world. In addition to universities and schools, there are synagogues and Catholic churches in Tehran, unlike in other Muslim countries. On the other hand, it must be remembered that the Iranians are Shiites, not Sunnis. All Islamic terroristic attacks in the world, apart from the one in Buenos Aires, have been carried out by the Sunnis.
Hijab’s imposition and the rites that the theocratic system wants to keep alive are out of history now, people don’t want them. The new thing is women have taken the leadership of the movement and young people aged 18 to 35 are in revolt. The police arrest them, kill them, but they run the risk of dying in order to rebel. The second new thing is that, in addition to the slogan “Woman, Life, Freedom”, there is the cry “president murderer”. Such a thing was unthinkable just 6 months ago.
And to demonstrate the progress that is going on, it is necessary to analyze the reactions to these protests. Rural Iran, the internal one, stayed silent, took no position against the demonstrations. We must consider that this rural world has ten, fifteen years of life left, no more, because young people all have mobile phones and are on social networks, so they are connected with the world. Internal Iran is also bound to change. Even prominent figures such as former reformist presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami have not said a word of condemnation. Not even the armed forces have spoken. The silence from an important sector is enormous. If they don’t say anything it’s a statement. And the people who don’t join the riots still support by honking their horns, shouting “death to the dictator” from windows and balconies. These things have never been seen before.
At the international level, nuclear negotiation agreement has a great impact on the situation in Iran. Last July the treaty was about to be signed but then it was stopped. All these progressive people who are protesting hope it will be signed. If this is not the case, they are afraid of sinking into the most desperate misery. The sanctions would not be lifted and the country is already in a very serious social and economic crisis that the protracted tensions can only make worse. The fundamentalist hard core, on the other hand, is rowing against.
Russia also has many interests to keep the theocratic regime, otherwise Iran would become pro-West. At the same time, however, Russia has become a competitor of Iran in selling oil to China, while Iran is helping it in the conflict against Ukraine by sending drones. So, Putin will have to decide at some point what to do and what side to be on”.
How will it end? What this country become?
Savio predicts: “Iran is heading towards a slow agony where there will be continuous demonstrations and repressions until the socio-cultural characteristic of the country changes to such an extent that the fundamentalists will no longer be able to maintain themselves. This will happen within maybe 10 years “.
The big question mark about the aftermath remains, as the young artist Zara Kiafar said: “In my opinion, the Islamic Republic is over anyway, it can’t survive, but I’m worried. Everything in Iran is destroyed: the nature, the woods, the monuments, the historic castles, the resources have run out. When sooner or later this regime will go away, what will come in its place? Who will be able to govern this beautiful but destroyed country? “
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*Italian Journalist. Expert in communication, marketing and social media. Ability to manage international projects for the dissemination and strengthening of visibility in the information sector. Former Executive Director, Other News, Rome
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