By Ramesh Jaura* – rjaura.substack.com
A Shock That Had Been Building for Months.
Six months ago, a meeting in Washington set the stage for the geopolitical rupture now unfolding. In one of the year’s most contentious diplomatic encounters, U.S. President Donald Trump confronted South African President Cyril Ramaphosa with allegations of “white genocide” — a claim rooted in far-right conspiracy theories, rejected by Pretoria, discredited by independent researchers, and even contradicted by parts of Trump’s own national security apparatus. The exchange was tense and deeply unsettling for African observers. Many hoped the moment would fade. Few imagined it would return with greater force.
Now it has. Trump has announced that the United States will not invite South Africa to the 2026 G20 Summit in Washington — and will push to remove Pretoria from the G20 altogether. What began as a charged clash over a false narrative has become a political earthquake, shaking three continents at once.
Pretoria was blindsided. New Delhi, Brasília, Beijing — and even Washington’s own policy community — were caught off guard by the severity of the move. For India and much of Africa, Trump’s decision felt bigger than a diplomatic slap. It cut directly across the inclusive, multipolar vision they have spent years striving to build: a world order where Africa is not merely at the table but plays a central, agenda-setting role.
The shock was immediate, but it also revealed a larger truth: this moment is not just a crisis. It is a crossroads. And what India, Africa, and the United States decide now will help determine the shape of global governance for years to come.
Why South Africa Matters Far Beyond Its Borders
Africa’s institutional anchor: South Africa is a leading voice in the African Union, SADC, and the G77. It is one of the few African states routinely consulted on global issues ranging from UN reform to climate diplomacy.
BRICS’ African Foundation: When South Africa joined BRICS in 2011, the grouping became truly global. It connected Africa to a powerful coalition stretching from Latin America to Eurasia. Without South Africa, BRICS loses its African balance — and its claim to speak for the Global South weakens.
A Diplomatic Bridge Between Worlds: South Africa’s history binds it to India, its economy ties it to the West, and its anti-apartheid legacy anchors it in the moral politics of the Global South. Few countries move as fluidly between these global spaces.
Removing South Africa from the G20 would therefore be more than punitive. It would send a message that African representation is conditional, dispensable, and reversible — a notion at odds with African aspirations, India’s strategic worldview, and the United States’ long-term interests.
BRICS: The Other Forum Everyone Is Watching
To understand the broader implications of the U.S.–South Africa rift, one must look closely at BRICS, the grouping that South Africa helped transform into a genuinely global platform.
Over the past ten years, BRICS has moved far beyond symbolism. It now includes:
– The New Development Bank, financing roads, power plants, and development projects without political strings
– Local-currency trade agreements, reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar
– Infrastructure partnerships across transport, digital connectivity, and renewable energy
– Dialogues on digital public infrastructure, where India’s experience is shaping global thinking
– Joint climate justice positions, with India and Africa often speaking in one voice
By 2025, the BRICS will have expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The grouping is now a continental bridge linking Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.
In this expanded constellation, South Africa plays a stabilising role. Without it, BRICS would tilt more heavily toward China — something neither India nor the U.S. wants.
This is why Trump’s action raised alarm in New Delhi and quiet concern in Washington: weakening South Africa in the G20 could, unintentionally, strengthen China within BRICS.
India’s Three-Dimensional Challenge
India’s global strategy is built on three pillars, all of which intersect with South Africa:
A More Representative G20: India’s 2023 G20 presidency made history by bringing the African Union into the group as a permanent member. Removing South Africa would undermine that achievement — and the principle behind it.
A Multipolar Africa, Not a Binary One: India wants Africa to have multiple strategic options — not to be caught in a U.S.–China tug-of-war. A U.S. move that alienates Africa risks pushing the continent deeper into China’s embrace.
A Balanced BRICS: India values BRICS as a forum where it can shape global governance despite disagreements with China. South Africa’s presence is essential to that balance.
For New Delhi, therefore, Trump’s decision is not a faint squat. It is a direct challenge to India’s vision of a more inclusive, multipolar world.
Africa’s Response: Disappointment Yet Determination
Africa in 2025 is confident and assertive — very different from the Africa of two decades ago. Its leaders have no intention of being passive observers in global politics.
At the 2025 Johannesburg G20 Summit, African leaders called for reasonable climate finance, investment in local mineral processing, debt relief, financial reform, better food and fertiliser security, and balanced discussion of global conflicts. This was Africa’s moment, and the world saw it.
Trump’s decision to boycott Johannesburg and then threaten expulsion was perceived as an effort to suppress Africa’s emerging influence. African diplomats responded not with resignation but with determination.
The continent’s reaction was swift and unmistakable: “We will not be silenced.” African diplomats argue that if powerful nations punish them for independent positions, then the global system itself needs reform.
Many believe Washington has misread the moment. Instead of disciplining Pretoria, Trump’s move risks isolating the United States from a continent that the entire world — including India and China — is now courting.
China’s Quiet Gain — and India’s Quiet Worry
China has offered few public comments. It does not need to. Every part of Trump’s move works to Beijing’s advantage:
– It reinforces the idea that Western-led institutions are inconsistent.
– It portrays China as the stable, long-term alternative.
– It nudges South Africa closer to Beijing.
– It makes BRICS appear more necessary.
– It weakens platforms — like the G20 — where China’s influence is limited.
This is the strategic irony of the moment.
A policy that looks “tough” on BRICS may actually strengthen China’s hand within it — and weaken India’s ability to keep BRICS balanced.
India does not want Africa to become an arena for U.S.–China rivalry. Its entire Africa strategy is built on providing a third, trusted option.
India–Africa Cooperation: A Partnership Built on Trust
India’s presence in Africa is not based on heavy-handed geopolitics. It is rooted in something far more human: shared experience, solidarity, and mutual respect.
For decades, India has worked closely with African countries through:
– extensive training programmes for civil servants, teachers, engineers, and medical professionals
– digital public infrastructure (DPI) partnerships
– solar and renewable energy projects
– Maritime security cooperation
– affordable pharmaceuticals and healthcare support
– concessional loans for development and connectivity
– regular political dialogue based on equality
Africa sees India as a partner whose development path mirrors its own aspirations, and whose experience — from IT to health to digital governance — is directly applicable.
That is why the G20 crisis is not merely political. It is a test of India’s commitment to protecting African representation — not only because it is strategic, but because it is rooted in shared history and trust.
The U.S. Perspective: Strategy and Impulse in Conflict
The United States often describes Africa as a strategic priority:
– essential for critical mineral supply chains
– home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies
– crucial for countering China’s global influence
– central to maritime security in the Indian Ocean
– a diplomatic heavyweight in the UN system
But Trump’s decision runs counter to each of these strategic needs.
Many U.S. diplomats and analysts privately acknowledge that excluding South Africa from the G20 hurts America’s long-term interests — and undermines the broader U.S. message that it seeks a respectful partnership with Africa.
The problem is that Trump’s foreign policy frequently combines personal narrative, domestic politics, and symbolic gestures. South Africa has been caught in that crossfire.
But the consequences are global.
The BRICS–Africa–India Triangle
Despite its imperfections, BRICS has created a space where African priorities genuinely shape global discussions.
It offers tools that resonate deeply with African nations:
– The New Development Bank, which avoids political conditionalities
– local-currency payment systems, supporting monetary autonomy
– value-added mineral partnerships, crucial for long-term development
– joint climate diplomacy, demanding fairness from wealthy emitters
– security cooperation in the Western Indian Ocean
If the G20 becomes less inclusive, BRICS and BRICS–Africa partnerships will almost certainly grow stronger.
This is not what the U.S. wants. Nor what India wants. ‘But it is the direction events will take unless the U.S.–South Africa rift is resolved.
What India, Africa, and the United States Must Do Now
India’s responsibilities
– Quietly block any attempt to remove South Africa from the G20
– Deepen development and digital partnerships across Africa
– Keep BRICS balanced, not China-dominated
– Build a coalition of Global South states defending inclusive governance
Africa’s priorities
– Stand united in defending its representation
– Strengthen AU structures and the AfCFTA
– Push ahead with mineral value chains and climate finance demands
– Engage BRICS and the West on equal terms
U.S. strategic interests
– Avoid alienating the very continent it says it wants to partner with
– Coordinate closely with India on African strategy
– Strengthen — not diminish — multilateralism
– Recognise that punitive measures often backfire
A Defining Moment for the Emerging World
The U.S.–South Africa rupture is not a minor foreign-policy disagreement. It is a crossroads.
Down one path lies a world where membership in global institutions depends on the whims of powerful actors — a world that is brittle, unequal, and increasingly unstable.
Down the other lies a world where Africa, India, and the wider Global South participate meaningfully in shaping global norms. This world is more balanced, more representative, and more resilient.
India supports the second path. Africa demands the second path. And the United States, if it looks beyond short-term politics, may find that this path is in its own interests too.
BRICS will not replace the G20. But it will grow stronger every time the G20 stumbles.
If India and Africa work together — and if the United States chooses strategy over impulse — this moment could strengthen the foundations of a new global order. A world not just multipolar, but fair, inclusive, and unmistakably more human.
*Ramesh Jaura is a journalist with 60 years of experience as a freelancer, head of Inter Press Service, and founder-editor of IDN-InDepthNews. His work draws on field reporting and coverage of international conferences and events.