Israel's Gaza City Operation Marks a Sharp Tactical and Political Turn - Other News

By Ramesh Jaura* – rjaura.substack.com

Sustainable peace cannot be achieved solely through military means.

Israel’s security Cabinet has approved a plan to seize and hold Gaza City, the enclave’s largest urban centre, in what officials describe as a phased expansion of military control aimed at “dismantling Hamas” and reshaping the war’s endgame.

The decision— arriving 22 months into a conflict that has already displaced most of Gaza’s population and pushed the territory to the brink of famine—has jolted allies, energised critics, and scrambled a diplomatic landscape already littered with failed ceasefire frameworks, particularly as it followed less than a fortnight after France and Saudi Arabia called for the establishment of a Palestinian state, with the support of the Arab League and 16 other co-chair.

Bottom of Form

The step has catalysed a global response—ranging from sanctions-like export suspensions to emergency UN meetings and region-wide manoeuvring over Hezbollah’s arsenal in Lebanon. Within hours of the announcement, Germany suspended military exports that could be used in Gaza, the UN human rights chief urged Israel to halt the plan, and families of Israeli hostages poured into the streets to denounce the move as a potential death sentence for their loved ones.

The Nut Graph

The Gaza City operation marks a sharp tactical and political turn: after months of raids, encirclements, and “mow the grass” cycles in northern Gaza, Israel is now openly preparing to “hold and maintain control” of the core metropolis, at least for a time, while continuing to insist it does not seek permanent occupation.

Whether this new posture forces Hamas into a deal, fractures Israel’s governing coalition, or accelerates an international legal squeeze may determine not just the war’s trajectory, but Israel’s strategic standing for years.

A Plan, and Its Risks

Officials briefed on the decision describe a “gradual” operation to take Gaza City while attempting to channel civilians out of combat zones and sustain aid deliveries on the periphery. Supporters say the move is a final, necessary escalation to break Hamas’s hold. Even they concede, however, that the military would need to remobilise large formations after nearly two years of continuous fighting across multiple fronts.

Critics—inside and outside Israel—warn of urban attrition, expanded displacement, and the heightened likelihood that Israeli hostages will be killed in crossfire or during attempted rescues.

These warnings land against a backdrop of staggering human loss. Gaza’s Health Ministry reports over 61,000 Palestinians killed since October 2023, with women and children making up more than half the fatalities. UN Women estimates over 28,000 women and girls have died. At the same time, independent assessments suggest that by January 2025, the actual toll—counting those trapped under rubble, dying of untreated wounds, or succumbing to hunger—may have reached 84,000. In residential bombings, the UN human rights office says, 70% of victims are women or children.

The Israel Defence Forces’ chief of staff publicly pledged to carry out the Cabinet’s directives “in the best possible way.” Yet former senior officers and ex-intelligence chiefs have cautioned that the shift could strain an already exhausted military and worsen the hostages’ plight. Thousands of Israelis, led by families of captives, rallied in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa to demand a ceasefire-for-hostages deal instead of another ground push.

Human Stories in the Numbers

The numbers hide a chorus of individual tragedies.

In Khan Younis, Samah al-Qudra, 34, lives on the floor of a school-turned-shelter. An airstrike killed her three daughters in seconds. She carries their dresses with her, folding them each night as if they might be worn again.

In Gaza City’s Shuja’iyya neighbourhood, volunteer medics recall pulling the bodies of twelve children from the rubble of a bakery, their small shoes still dusted with flour.

These stories illustrate what the statistics reveal: that the war is killing civilians at a scale that has shocked even long-time observers of the conflict.

Hunger and Aid: Death in the Queue

Desperation now defines daily life. Since May 2025, over 1,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces while seeking food aid; 80 were children. In one incident, 11-year-old Ahmed, clutching his first bag of flour in weeks, was shot and killed before he could return home to his younger sister. “He wanted to make bread for her,” his father said, “but he never came home.”

In the past two months alone, an additional 859 people have died near aid distribution sites—not all seeking food, but caught in chaotic conditions where safety collapses alongside supply.

International Pushback Hardens

If the war’s first year was defined by U.S.-led shielding of Israel despite mounting civilian casualties, 2025 is beginning to look different.

Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz suspended all military exports that could be used in Gaza—the most severe rift in Berlin-Jerusalem defence ties in decades.
Canada, Britain, France, and others sharpened criticism.
A bloc including Australia, Germany, Italy, New Zealand, and the UK warned against annexation, settlement expansion, or worsening humanitarian collapse.
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, condemned the plan as contrary to international law; the UN Security Council convened an emergency session.

Meanwhile, The Hague is active on two fronts: the International Criminal Court upheld arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant; the International Court of Justice is expanding hearings on South Africa’s genocide case. Legal risk is shifting from symbolic to strategic—forcing Israel’s allies to weigh court rulings against long-standing political commitments.

The U.S. Position: Friction Without a Break

Washington remains Israel’s indispensable ally, but public messaging has hardened around humanitarian concerns. U.S. envoys, with Egyptian and Qatari counterparts, have worked on a framework to release all hostages—living and deceased—in exchange for a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal.

Those talks have stalled repeatedly. Israel argues that taking Gaza City will increase pressure on Hamas; Hamas counters that escalation only strengthens its resolve. The gap between Washington’s diplomatic cadence and Jerusalem’s military tempo is widening, but the alliance remains intact.

Regional Chessboard: Lebanon, Syria, Iran

The northern border remains volatile. Washington has floated a year-end plan for Hezbollah to disarm in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from contested areas, with the Lebanese army expanding its control south of the Litani River.

Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, has dismissed the timetable, citing ongoing Israeli attacks. Lebanon’s government has tasked the army with drafting an implementation plan, but Hezbollah’s defiance makes the prospect uncertain. The risk: as Israel’s focus deepens in Gaza City, northern miscalculations could ignite a second front.

Beyond Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes in Syria continue, part of a broader shadow war with Iran’s network of regional allies. The Gaza City operation is not isolated—it’s embedded in a combustible regional equation.

Inside Israel: A Country at Cross-Purposes

The Gaza City decision has crystallised internal divides. Opposition leader Yair Lapid accuses the government of lacking a “day-after” plan. Former officials warn of the trap of controlling a devastated city without a legitimate authority to transfer it to.

Hostage families are now at the centre of the political storm, accusing the government of prioritising battlefield optics over the captives’ lives. Netanyahu’s office insists Israel does not intend to occupy Gaza permanently and prefers a “non-terrorist civilian administration,” potentially under Arab oversight—but has offered no specifics on how to achieve this without an extended military presence.

Gaza’s Humanitarian Cliff

The humanitarian picture is grim. Aid groups describe a population living without reliable shelter, clean water, or medical care. An expanded ground operation in Gaza City will likely force more evacuations into areas already unable to cope.

Urban control under active insurgency historically leads to higher civilian harm and long-term instability—precisely what alarms Israel’s allies and humanitarian agencies.

Europe Splits—Edges Toward Conditionality

Germany’s suspension is headline news, but the broader European shift is toward conditional engagement: visa bans on far-right Israeli ministers, tighter export controls, and debates over recognising Palestinian statehood. The Netherlands has postponed recognition but increased pressure on Israel through targeted measures. Whether Berlin’s precedent becomes the European norm remains to be seen.

Lawfare Squeeze

The ICC and ICJ tracks are exerting pressure in three ways:

Travel risk for senior Israeli officials.
Political cover for allied governments to push Israel toward compliance.
Legal obligations that constrain military partnerships.

Israel rejects both courts’ jurisdiction, but the persistence of cases suggests a legal tide it cannot simply ignore.

What the Plan Seeks to Solve—and What It Doesn’t

Strategic objectives:

Severe Hamas’s operational core in Gaza City.
Increase leverage in hostage negotiations.
Prevent a return to pre-war governance by Hamas.

Unanswered questions:

Who governs Gaza after the operation?
How to maintain security without permanent occupation?
How to ensure hostages are freed rather than killed?

These uncertainties explain why even some Israeli military leaders urge caution, and why allied capitals are pressing for a political track alongside military operations.

The Emerging Diplomatic Matrix

Mediators in Cairo and Doha continue to push a package deal: hostages for ceasefire and withdrawal, paired with a governance and reconstruction framework. Israel’s advance could serve as leverage—but it could also entrench the conflict if no political horizon emerges.

Lebanon: A Test of Containment

Success in Gaza could free resources for the northern front; failure or entrenchment could embolden Hezbollah. The year-end disarmament plan remains a test case for whether regional de-escalation is possible amid Gaza’s war.

Scenarios for the Next 90 Days

1. Leverage-to-Deal: Israel secures key districts, opens humanitarian corridors, and agrees to a hostage-for-ceasefire exchange. Fighting tapers; reconstruction debates begin.
2. Entrenchment Spiral: Urban combat drags on; civilian toll rises; legal and diplomatic isolation deepens.
3. Regional Slippage: Escalation with Hezbollah or Iranian proxy forces Israel into a two-front war.

The Global Response, Summarised

United Nations: Condemnation from the rights chief; Security Council emergency session.
Europe: Germany leads with export suspension; others weigh targeted measures.
Anglosphere partners: Coordinated statements urging restraint and humanitarian access.
Region: Egypt and Qatar keep mediation alive; Lebanon navigates Hezbollah veto.
United States: Frustration growing, but alliance intact.
Legal fora: ICC warrants and ICJ proceedings intensify scrutiny.

Conclusion

Israel’s Gaza City operation could coerce Hamas toward a comprehensive exchange and open a path—however narrow—toward a political settlement. Or it could deepen an occupation-lite scenario, humanitarian collapse, and international isolation.

The war has already killed over 61,000 Palestinians—more than half women and children—alongside 1,000 killed seeking food aid. These are not just collateral statistics; they are the moral and political weight that now bears down on every decision-maker in Jerusalem, Washington, and beyond.

Leverage can be obtained through military means. However, establishing long-term peace may require political determination and recognition that success should not result in widespread destruction.

Editor’s note: This article relies on contemporaneous reporting from wire services and major outlets, local media in Israel and the region, and official UN feeds for OHCHR and Security Council scheduling, while adhering to tighter word limits to preserve impact.

*Ramesh Jaura has worked as a professional journalist for nearly sixty years. His career includes roles as a freelancer, head of Inter Press Service, and Editor-in-Chief of International Press Syndicate and IDN-InDepthNews.