Devnet – Speak softly and carry a Javelin

Masahiro Tauchi, Advisor, DEVNET JAPAN Former Ambassador of Japan to Norway

Putin’s war of aggression has shattered peace in Europe. Through the war in Ukraine, the dictatorship of Russia turned its fangs and the threat became clear to the world. Not only did Ukraine suffer tremendous damage, but the cracks between the dictatorship and the democracy became apparent, and the danger of confrontation between the two sides, including nuclear war, became apparent and will continue for a long time to come.

Almost a year has passed since it was said that the threat of authoritarian Russia would become the “new normal,” but the threat of Russia, which has become an aggressor, has always existed and will not abate, as feared. It is likely that the situation side by side with danger will continue in the future. If the aggressor wins here, there will be no lasting peace, and the threat of aggression from Russia or other authoritarian states will always exist.

What the West pays to help Ukraine is financial, humanitarian and military, so to speak, pecuniary aid, but the price Ukrainians pay is blood[1]. Democracies pay a much higher price when authoritarian regimes thrive on power. The world becomes a more dangerous world for us. Therefore, the best way to achieve lasting peace is to help Ukraine not lose.

Since December last year, when Russia gathered troops on the border with Ukraine and fears of aggression increased, U.S. President Biden has stated that he has “no plans” to send U.S. troops to Ukraine, which is not an ally of the US.  He emphasized his desire to avoid a direct military conflict between the two countries. After the outbreak of war, he repeated that “World War III must be avoided at all costs.”[2]

On April 21, 2022, when U.S. President Biden announced additional military aid to Ukraine, he likened former President Theodore Roosevelt’s diplomatic quote that is “Speak softly and carry a big stick” and said “We speak softly and carry Javelins.’ We’re sending them out in droves”. The Javelin is an anti-tank missile used by the Ukrainian military to counterattack Russian tanks and supply vehicles approaching the capital city of Kyiv, and was very effective in preventing the capital from being seized. But it wasn’t enough for Ukraine, and President Zelenskyy has been frustrated by the United States’ avoidance of supporting offensive weapons such as fighter jets.[3]

President Biden is understandably most concerned about the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia. Although he appealed for the “defense” of Ukraine, he did not mention “winning” the war, and was pointed out by the US media that he was “more interested in not provoking Russia than winning the war.” Military assistance is also kept to a level that does not pose the risk of nuclear retaliation. On the other hand, diplomatic and defense experts said, “Putin’s nuclear threat is deterring the United States more. We must restore strong deterrence to avoid a nuclear tragedy.”[4]

At a meeting with the President of Finland in Kultaranta, Finland on June 12, 2022, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said, “NATO is not a party to war. NATO has stepped up its assistance in the areas of military, economic and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, its most important partner, in exercising its right to self-defense as defined in the UN Charter. Firstly, it is for the survival of Ukraine, a sovereign and democratic state, at the cost of prolonging this war, but Ukraine will decide whether to continue the war or not. The second mission of NATO is to prevent the escalation of war and protect the people of our allies, not to inflame conflict, but to keep the peace.”[5] What NATO can do for Ukraine can be summarized as (1) providing weapons to defend Ukraine’s right to self-defense and (2) preventing the escalation of the war and its spread to its allies. And even if it prolongs the war, it is consistent with the position that Ukraine should decide whether to continue the war or not.

Since June, the United States has provided Ukraine with 16 high-mobility rocket artillery systems, the HIMARS, which are said to have a long range and are capable of precise attacks. The high-mobility rocket artillery system “HIMARS” destroyed many Russian artillery and ammunition depots and destroyed various Russian trenches in ground combat. Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov emphasized on July 25 that he had destroyed a total of 50 Russian ammunition depots since receiving HIMARS.  On September 8, US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Milley said that the US-supplied high-mobility rocket artillery system “HIMARS” alone was hitting hundreds of Russian targets. This reduced the Russian artillery and ammunition, and led to the recapture of Kherson.

On September 30, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the annexation of four provinces occupied by Russian forces: two eastern provinces (Donetsk and Luhansk) and two southern provinces (Kherson and Zaporizhia). At the same time, it has threatened to use nuclear weapons if the war in Ukraine does not go as planned.

Prior to this, the Biden administration announced additional military aid of $ 1.1 billion (about 159 billion yen) to Ukraine on September 28, when Russia was showing moves to annex four states. This military assistance will eventually provide Ukraine with additional equipment such as multi-purpose radars, anti-unmanned aircraft systems, tactical vehicles to tow weapons, and other equipment. It also plans to procure 18 HIMARS high-mobility rocket artillery systems to complement the 16 currently in use by Ukraine, which have produced excellent results, especially in attacking Russian ammunition depots and supply lines. But a senior U.S. defense official said it could take “several years” to procure the rocket artillery system and its ammunition and deliver them to the Ukrainian military. The official said the aid package “underlines the United States’ commitment to supporting Ukraine in the long term.”[6]

However, the maximum range of HIMARS rockets is 15km to 100km. ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles with a range of more than 300 km can also be launched, but US President Biden is concerned that the provision of ATACMS to Ukraine may overstimulate President Putin, who is wary of attacks on the mainland. Therefore, President Biden has not issued an instruction for its provision.[7]

Until now, democratic countries have continued to help Ukraine to keep it from losing, to keep Russia from winning, and to keep Russia from using nuclear weapons. Inside Ukraine, some question why the West wants to impose restrictions on Ukraine’s defensive warfare when Russia attacks them without any restrictions. “The West seems to be fine-tuning its winning strategy, saying that they want Ukraine to win, but they don’t want to win too much,” said one observer.[8]

How will the war in Ukraine progress and how will it end? Secretary-General Stoltenberg sees Russia as trying to suspend fighting and reorganize forces in preparation for a new offensive early next year, so he says he will ask the allies to continue to send arms to Ukraine to prevent a Russian offensive next spring. [9]

“Russia has shown no signs of participating in negotiations respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and complete territorial integrity. There are currently no conditions for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia,”Stoltenberg said. “It is the Ukrainians who decide when to negotiate,” he added. He said,

“Most wars, and probably this war too, end at the negotiating table. It is important to ensure that there will not be the case where independent sovereign states are attacked by other states and end up in victory for the aggressor. When the aggressor ends up winning, authoritarian leaders around the world and President Putin receive the message that when they violate international law, when they invade other countries, they achieve what they want. It sends a very bad message that it can be done.” He stressed the importance of NATO continuing to send weapons to Ukraine and strengthening its negotiating position to prevent such a situation. First, Putin, who started the war of aggression, should end the war, and second, Ukraine should win the war as an independent sovereign state and help create the conditions for a negotiated settlement.[10]

Before starting the war, President Putin ignored NATO’s efforts to find a political solution, so NATO and Russia cannot return to some kind of good or normal relationship. A difficult relationship with Russia is likely to last for a long time, and we need to prepare for it.

Until now, it has been said that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons should not be seen as a real danger. But Russia’s existence is at risk when it begins to retreat under the pressure of Ukraine’s offensive. It cannot be asserted that there is no possibility of using nuclear weapons in such situation. However, President Putin himself is of course aware that a nuclear attack on Ukraine will inevitably lead to the United States joining the war. The US strategy of “Speak softly and carry a Javelin” is not wrong. Ukrainian President Zelensky visited Washington on December 21 and met with US President Biden at the White House. President Biden announced the provision of additional military assistance totaling $1.85 billion (about 240 billion yen), including one ground-based air defense system “Patriot”. The Biden administration showed reluctance to provide the Patriots, citing the possibility of heightening tensions between the United States and Russia. But it has decided that it is necessary to hurry to increase air defense capability in the situation where the infrastructure of energy and water in Ukraine being attacked by the Russian missiles. However, at the press conference, President Biden also emphasized that “weapons for defense are not meant to escalate war.” The President’s policy of “Speak softly and carry a Javelin” continues.


[1] Speech by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the Berlin Security Conference https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_209188.htm

[2] Yomiuri Shimbun Online2022/04/24 Biden administration wants to avoid “World War III”, Ukraine pays “brutal price”. https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/world/20220423-OYT1T50320/ 

[3] ibid.

[4] Ibid.

[5] Speech by SG of NATO Jens Stoltenberg https://www-nato-int.translate.goog/cps/fr/natohq/opinions_196300.htm?_x_tr_sl=en&_x_tr_tl=ja&_x_tr_hl=ja&_x_tr_pto=sc

[6] Wall Street’s journal https://jp.wsj.com/articles/the-american-military-needs-more-amm-11664511486

[7] Mr. Takayuki Fukagawa, “The amazing power of Hymers, a game-changer in the Ukraine counteroffensive,https://jbpress.ismedia.jp/articles/-/71360

[8] BBC News Japan Ukraine How long will Western unity last? Are there signs of cracks? https://www.bbc.com/japanese/features-and-analysis-61688478

[9] Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/a3a35c7e-258e-455a-9197-09360b6e129d

[10] Financial Times https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_209984.htm