DEVNET – “History repeats itself: Power Strugglesacross the Pacific coming again’

DEVNET Japan Advisor – Takamasa ISHIZUKA

August is the month in which the Pacific War ended for Japan: a conflict
between two countries on opposite sides of the vast Pacific Ocean fighting
over maritime control.
Looking at the current international situation, the rise of BRICS (Brazil,
Russia, India, China and South Africa) is reshaping the global power
structure. China i expanding its influence through this framework, particularly
demonstrating its power in the East Asian and Pacific regions. Additionally, the nature
of warfare i changing, shifting from traditional naval and ground battles to high tech
warfare involving missiles and drones. This new form of warfare has dramatically
altered the reality of conflict, with remote operations and unmanned arme becoming
main means in the battlefield.
Amid these changes, since 2016, there has been a growing number of countries breaking
off the diplomatic ties with Taiwan and establishing new relations with Mainland China.
This includes countries such a São Tomé and Príncipe, Panama, the Dominican
Republic, Burkina Faso, El Salvador, the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Nicaragua,
Honduras, and, in January 2024, Nauru, These movements echo Japan’s action during
World War II when it sought to counter US advances. China’s current efforts to expand
ite control over the Pacific, against the backdrop of BRICS’ rise and evolving warfare,
can be seen as a continuation of this pattern.
In this context, the 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM 10), held in Tokyo from
July 16 for three days, reaffirmed the importance of peace and stability, freedom,
democracy, sustainable development, the rule of law, human rights, peaceful conflict
resolution and environmental conservation. It is easy to imagine the ongoing tug of war
between the US and China, who both were not in attendance at this meeting.
On the other hand, China, emerging as a key member of BRICS, faces internal
challenges such as economic slowdown, declining birth rates, and real estate risks,
making it uncertain whether it can sustain its growth. The third plenary session of the
20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, held from July 15 for three
days, emphasized “Chinese-style economic modernization” and “strengthening direct
intervention (leadership) of the Communist Party.” It can be said that China aims for a
version of world peace of its own style.
In this Pacific power struggle driven by the logic of great power nationalism, with the
rise of BRICS and the evolution of warfare technology, it is crucial for the United
Nations to deeply reconsider its original mission. The role of the United Nations,
established to avoid world wars as well as to protect peace, is now more important than
ever and should be recognized once again.